The number of Tasmanians being diagnosed with cancer is expected to jump from 11 to almost 15 people a day over the next decade, according to a new report from Cancer Council Tasmania.
The Tasmanian Cancer Registry predicts annual diagnoses will rise from 4,094 in 2022 to 5,328 by 2032, a 30% increase CEO Alison Lai said will put extra pressure on the state’s already stretched health system.
“This conservative forecast represents an increase in diagnoses of 30% over the next 10 years,” she said.
The figures mean an extra 24 people each week, or more than 1,100 additional patients every year, will need oncology services on top of what is already required.
Prostate cancer is expected to remain the most common diagnosis, with cases more than doubling from 858 in 2022 to a projected 2,314 by 2032.
Melanoma is set to overtake breast cancer as the second most common cancer, with cases climbing from 390 to 581.
Lai said the rising numbers are linked to Tasmania’s ageing population, better access to healthcare and preventable risk factors such as smoking, alcohol use, UV exposure, poor diet and lack of physical activity.
She said the forecast should serve as a wake-up call, urging all major parties to commit to greater investment in cancer prevention, care and treatment.
“A proactive response is going to be essential and the prioritisation of investment into cancer prevention, early detection and screening is going to be critical,” she said.
“We know that almost half of our cancer burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors and that people are more likely to survive cancer if it’s found early.”
The Cancer Council is calling on the state government to allocate at least 5% of the health budget to preventative measures, including targeted cancer prevention campaigns and programs.
