Tasmania is on track for another hung parliament, with the Liberal Party tipped to win more seats than Labor but still fall short of a majority, according to a new poll released today.
The Pulse Tasmania DemosAU poll shows the Liberals holding a 10-point lead over Labor, with 34.9% of the vote compared to Labor’s 24.7%.
If those numbers hold, DemosAU estimates the Liberals would pick up 13–14 seats and Labor 9–10 in the 35-seat parliament.
The poll also points to rising support for crossbench candidates, with the Greens capturing 15.6% of the vote and independents climbing to 20.3% – a swing of 10.7% since the last election.
DemosAU’s Head of Research George Hasanakos said the results suggest another term of minority government is on the cards.
“If Labor maintains its opposition to forming government with the support of the Greens then the current Liberal government will retain office,” Hasanakos told Pulse.
Who makes up the crossbench will be crucial to how effective the next parliament is, with both the Greens and independents poised to increase their numbers.
“The Greens are growing their vote in the north securing Cecily Rosol’s Bass seat and potentially capitalising on anti-stadium sentiment to win a second,” Hasanakos added.
“The Greens are also well placed to win a seat in Braddon for the first time in more than a decade.”
Sitting independents Craig Garland in Braddon, Kristie Johnston in Clark and David O’Byrne in Franklin also appear set for re-election with quotas of first preferences.
They are likely to be joined by independent Peter George in Franklin.
“At this stage, it appears in Bass the final seat will come down to between a second Green, sitting independent MP Rebekah Pentland and challenging independent George Razay,” Hasanakos said.
“In Lyons the final seat will come down to a bevy of independents including Angela Offord, Nationals candidate and former MP John Tucker and the Shooters Fishers and Farmers’ Carlo di Falco.”
Jeremy Rockliff remains the preferred premier with 40.7% support, well ahead of Labor leader Dean Winter on 31.1%.
Pulse election analyst Kevin Bonham said the poll suggests Labor is on track for its worst primary vote since 1903.
He said it shows Tasmanians “could be voting for more of the same”.
“The poll suggests helping force Tasmanians to vote again, for some the fifth time since October 2023, is doing Labor no favours – though they are unlikely to lose seats,” Bonham said.
“Tasmanian polling tends to overstate the independent vote and sometimes the Greens also, but the four most prominent independents are polling so well they could all win anyway.”
The poll also suggests there could be more change within the major parties than between them, Bonham said.
He said Liberal MPs Simon Wood and Roger Jaensch, along with Labor’s Meg Brown and Casey Farrell, are “at risk from high-profile new ticketmates”.
The poll surveyed 3,421 Tasmanian voters between July 6 and 10, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1%.
Tasmanians will head to the polls next Saturday.
