A new poll suggests Labor MP Julie Collins is on track to comfortably retain the Tasmanian seat of Franklin, despite rising support for independent candidates.
The Enterprise Marketing and Research Service (EMRS) survey of 430 voters conducted on April 9-10 shows Collins commanding 38% of the primary vote, substantially ahead of Liberal candidate Josh Garvin on 19%.
The Greens’ Owen Fitzgerald and anti-salmon farming independent Peter George are tied on 13% each, while independent Brendan Blomeley sits at 7%.
EMRS CEO Mary Massina said Collins’ support had actually increased since the last federal election.
“Ms Collins’ measured level of support in this poll at 38% is actually higher than her final primary result of 36.7% in the 2022 election,” Massina said.
The poll reveals potential challenges for the Liberal Party, which appears to be losing ground to independent candidates.
“Perhaps of greatest interest in the seat at the moment is whether the Liberals, who appear to be losing primary votes to both independents, are able to finish second on a two-party preferred basis,” Massina said.
The poll, which has a margin of error of 4.71%, combined both computer-assisted telephone interviewing and online methods.
It asked respondents who they would give their first preference vote to if a federal election were held today, with a follow-up question for undecided voters asking which way they were leaning.
