Support for Tasmania’s Liberal government has plummeted to its lowest level in 16 years, with the Macquarie Point stadium proposal thought to be a key factor driving voters away from the party.
The latest Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS) poll released today shows the Liberals polling at just 29%, down five percentage points since February, while Labor has edged ahead to 31%.
It marks the first time Labor has led the Liberals in a poll since May 2009, marking a significant shift in the state’s political landscape.
“It seems clear the proposed Macquarie Point stadium has become a serious drag on the Liberal vote”, Managing Director of EMRS Mary Massina said.
The poll shows concern over the stadium has jumped from just 2% to 13%, making it one of the top issues for voters. It now sits alongside cost of living as a key concern and trails only health, which leads at 21%.
What may worry the Liberals most is the sharp drop in support in the state’s north-west, long considered a stronghold which also had a poor showing in the recent federal election, where backing has fallen by 10 percentage points to 34%.
The party also recorded declines in the north, where it is down 8% to 30% and a smaller 2% drop in the south to 26%.
While Labor has taken the lead, their gains appear modest, with Massina noting that “Labor’s ability to capitalise on this is also being held back by their support for the stadium”.
That frustration appears to be driving more voters towards independents, whose support has surged five points to 17%. The Greens held steady at 14%, while the Jacqui Lambie Network dropped two points to 6%.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff is still the preferred premier, backed by 44% of voters compared to 32% for Labor leader Dean Winter. But Rockliff’s net favourability rating has dipped from 10% to 6%.
Winter continues to face a recognition challenge, with 24% of voters saying they’ve “never heard of” him, compared to just 5% for Rockliff.
EMRS said the survey was conducted from May 13 to 17, interviewing 1,000 registered voters across Tasmania.
