The latest EMRS voting intentions poll suggests that the Liberals are likely to retain government, albeit in a minority position.
Released at noon on Wednesday, the poll, conducted earlier this month with the participation of 1,000 Tasmanian voters, indicates that support for the Liberal Government currently stands at 39% among decided voters, remaining unchanged from a previous poll in November 2023.
Support for Labor has fallen among decided voters to 26%, widening the gap between the two major parties to 13 percentage points – the largest margin since December 2021.
Support for the Greens remained consistent with the November 2023 poll, positioning them at a similar level to the last election.
Speaking to the data, EMRS’ Managing Director Paul Jamrozik believes that minor parties and independents will hold significant influence in shaping the outcome of the March Election.
“The Labor opposition has seen a steady decline in voter support since August 2023, partly attributed to the Jacqui Lambie Network’s candidacy in four out of the five electorates,” he said.
“This is an indication that voters are not convinced that Labor is a viable alternative government. Meanwhile, the Liberal Government has not yet seen the JLN impact on voter support in the latest poll, however it would appear that the Liberal vote has been eroded in favour of Independent candidates since the last election.”
Jeremy Rockliff for the Liberals remains the preferred premier at a stable at 41%, while Labor’s Rebecca White has narrowed the gap, rising from 35% in November 2023 to 38% in the February poll.
Jamrozik attributes the rise in support for White to an increase in voters making a decision between the two major party leaders, with a decrease in undecided voters from 23% in November 2023 to 20% in February 2024.
🟦 Liberal: 39% (-)
🟥 Labor: 26% (-3)
⬜️ Independents: 14%
🟩 Greens: 12% (-)
🟨 Jacqui Lambie Network: 9%
🟪 Other: 1%
