The Liberals have opened up an 11-point lead over Labor, with the party’s primary vote climbing to 37% in the latest EMRS tracking poll.
The voting intentions survey shows a steady upward trend for the Liberals, who have gained six percentage points since the first week of polling.
Labor remains stuck on 26%, while the Greens hold firm at 15% among decided voters.
Independent candidates are polling at 18%, suggesting more Tasmanians are looking beyond the major parties this election.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff also remains the preferred premier, EMRS has found, with 43% support compared to Labor leader Dean Winter’s 30%.
The survey of more than 2,000 Tasmanians shows the Liberals’ support has grown steadily throughout the campaign, up from 31% in mid-June to 37% by early July.
Labor’s primary vote has fluctuated between 26% and 28% across the four-week period, suggesting the party is struggling to gain traction with voters.
Support for independents remains the wildcard in Tasmania’s political mix, especially under the state’s Hare-Clark voting system, which often boosts the influence of crossbench MPs.
This level of independent backing could be crucial in deciding who forms government, particularly if neither major party can secure a clear majority.
The Greens’ steady 15% keeps them in a potential kingmaker role, while the National Party’s entry into Tasmanian politics has picked up a modest 3%.
Rockliff also holds a positive net favourability rating of +12%, while Winter remains in the negative at -9%.
Pre-polling is already open, with several voting centres now operating across the state ahead of election day on July 19.
