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Liberals take 11-point lead over Labor, EMRS poll shows

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Liberals take 11-point lead over Labor, EMRS poll shows. Image / Pulse

The Liberals have opened up an 11-point lead over Labor, with the party’s primary vote climbing to 37% in the latest EMRS tracking poll.

The voting intentions survey shows a steady upward trend for the Liberals, who have gained six percentage points since the first week of polling.

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Labor remains stuck on 26%, while the Greens hold firm at 15% among decided voters.

Independent candidates are polling at 18%, suggesting more Tasmanians are looking beyond the major parties this election.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff is the preferred premier with 43% support. Image / Pulse

Premier Jeremy Rockliff also remains the preferred premier, EMRS has found, with 43% support compared to Labor leader Dean Winter’s 30%.

The survey of more than 2,000 Tasmanians shows the Liberals’ support has grown steadily throughout the campaign, up from 31% in mid-June to 37% by early July.

Labor’s support remains steady at 26% among voters

Labor’s primary vote has fluctuated between 26% and 28% across the four-week period, suggesting the party is struggling to gain traction with voters.

Support for independents remains the wildcard in Tasmania’s political mix, especially under the state’s Hare-Clark voting system, which often boosts the influence of crossbench MPs.

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This level of independent backing could be crucial in deciding who forms government, particularly if neither major party can secure a clear majority.

The Greens’ steady 15% keeps them in a potential kingmaker role, while the National Party’s entry into Tasmanian politics has picked up a modest 3%.

Rockliff also holds a positive net favourability rating of +12%, while Winter remains in the negative at -9%.

Pre-polling is already open, with several voting centres now operating across the state ahead of election day on July 19.

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