Sitting MPs from both major parties could lose their seats to colleagues in today’s Tasmanian election, according to political analyst Kevin Bonham.
The threat comes from Tasmania’s Hare-Clark electoral system, where parties run multiple candidates in each electorate and voters can pick and choose between them.
“There’ll be probably a number of casualties within parties of candidates losing to their own ticket mates,” Bonham told the ABC on Friday.
He pointed to recent polling by DemosAU suggesting a high turnover of candidates, particularly with three former federal MPs entering the race.
“Normally federal MPs who run in state elections do get elected. Not always, but quite often,” Bonham said.
The DemosAU polling found up to 13 sitting MPs could be at risk of losing their seats.
Among them are Liberal MPs Simon Wood and Rob Fairs in Bass and Labor’s Meg Brown and Casey Farrell in Lyons.
On the flipside, former federal MPs Bridget Archer, Gavin Pearce and Brian Mitchell are seen as strong chances to return to politics.
If elected, Archer and Pearce would represent Bass and Braddon for the Liberals and Mitchell would represent Lyons for Labor at the state level
Bonham said while there has not been much public polling, what is out there shows the Liberals holding a slight edge.
“The polls are not pointing to a drastic change in terms of number of seats,” he said.
“They’re more suggesting that there’ll be changes in who the crossbenchers are.”
Results will be less complete tonight than previous elections, with a clearer picture of winners and losers expected to emerge by Monday.
Polling booths open at 8am across Tasmania.
