One Nation’s 14% state polling debut has slashed the Liberal government’s lead over Labor to just six points, the tightest margin since last year’s state election.
The latest EMRS quarterly poll shows the Liberals on 29%, down five points since November, while Labor sits at 23% The Greens have 15%, independents 15% and other parties 3%.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff maintains a comfortable 14-point lead over Labor’s Josh Willie as preferred premier, with 40% backing Rockliff compared to Willie’s 26%. 31% of voters remain unsure.
EMRS managing director Brad Stansfield said One Nation’s strong showing still lagged well behind its federal support.
“While impressive, One Nation’s 14% is a full ten points behind their result in the concurrent federal poll we ran,” he said.
“That being said, at 29% the Liberal primary vote is the equal lowest it’s been since their pre-election campaign nadir in May last year.”
He said the government would need to closely monitor One Nation’s state-level support in coming months.
Stansfield said that on the recent Poll Position state political podcast, Tasmanian One Nation representative Lee Hanson had indicated the party was “days away” from lodging their application to register at state level.
The party has established four branches across Tasmania’s five federal electorates, with a Braddon branch launch scheduled for next Saturday in Ulverstone.
In the net favourability stakes, Mr Rockliff rated plus one, Mr Willie minus four and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff minus six.
The poll also revealed a dramatic shift in voter priorities since the Macquarie Point Stadium bill passed parliament late last year.
Stansfield said the stadium had dropped from consistently rating in the high teens as a top issue to just 5%, now sitting well behind health, cost of living and housing.
The survey was conducted from 16-19 February with 1,000 Tasmanians participating through telephone and online interviews.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
