Tasmanian voters are leaning slightly towards a Liberal minority government over a Labor–Greens alliance, according to fresh polling taken after last month’s state election.
The EMRS survey found 44% of voters would rather see Jeremy Rockliff lead a minority Liberal government with crossbench backing, compared to 38% who want Dean Winter to form a Labor government with the Greens and independents.
When undecided voters are excluded, support for the Liberals jumps to 54%, leaving Labor on 46%, EMRS said.
The July 19 election resulted in a hung parliament, with 14 Liberals, 10 Labor, five Greens and four independents elected so far. Two seats remain in doubt as counting continues.
The poll also highlights a split within Labor’s own ranks, with 21% of Labor voters saying they now prefer a Liberal-led outcome.
EMRS said this suggests “a reticence in that group to governing with Green support”.
The survey also asked whether voters believe Labor forming government with the Greens would amount to a “deal”, something Winter repeatedly ruled out during the campaign.
56% said they would see it as a deal, while 25% disagreed and 19% were unsure.
Winter said Jeremy Rockliff has the first opportunity to form government and that Labor is prepared to work with the crossbench if he can’t.
“The only poll that counts is the poll that we had on election day which was less than two weeks ago. That’s the one that matters in terms of the formation of government,” Winter said.
Both major parties are still in talks with crossbenchers as they work to show they can command the confidence of the new parliament.
One key independent, Craig Garland, today ruled out entering into any agreement for confidence and supply with the Liberals.
The final make-up of the parliament is expected to be confirmed by Saturday.
