The Rockliff Liberal government has shed six percentage points in three months, with a new poll showing independents now command 17% of the primary vote.
The poll by DemosAU of 1,071 Tasmanians, conducted between January 27 and February 12, puts the Liberals on 35% – down from 41% in October.
Labor sits on 23%, barely changed from the last survey, while the Greens hold steady at 15%.
The independent vote has climbed three points since October, making crossbenchers a growing force ahead of the next state election.
DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said the government was feeling the strain of managing both the state’s finances and a hung parliament.
“The government has been returned to office for over half a year now and the challenges it faces with the state’s finances and dealing with a hung parliament are starting to weigh on its vote,” he said.
“Despite the fall in the vote for the Liberal government, Labor isn’t making any headway at this time.”
Premier Jeremy Rockliff remains the only political leader with a positive approval rating, but only just – sitting at +2%.
His preferred premier lead over opposition leader Josh Willie has narrowed to 43% versus 32%, with a quarter of voters undecided.
Treasurer Eric Abetz recorded the worst net approval among Liberal figures at -21%, while Deputy Premier Guy Barnett sat at -15%.
Labor’s leadership team fared little better. Willie’s net approval dropped to -7%, while shadow treasurer Dean Winter languished at -23%.
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff also polled poorly at -21%.
The three independent MPs – Kristie Johnston, Peter George and Craig Garland – recorded high neutral ratings.
Younger voters drove much of the Liberal decline, with support among 18 to 34-year-olds dropping nine points since October.
Hasanakos said the resolution of the Macquarie Point stadium issue may have contributed.
“Looking at the changes in the vote by demographics, the Liberal losses are concentrated among voters under 55 years of age which could be due to the resolution of the stadium issue which was relatively more popular amongst younger voters,” he said.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party reached 4%, part of what Hasanakos described as a “populist insurgency” filtering down from the mainland.
“The populist insurgency on the mainland is casting a shadow over Tasmanian politics even as One Nation is not a registered party for state elections,” he said.
The Liberal vote has fallen 4.9 points since the March 2024 state election, which delivered Rockliff a second term with a reduced majority.
The poll has an effective sample size of 745 and a margin of error of 3.6%.
