One Nation has surged to 24% support in Tasmania, placing it ahead of the Liberal Party on 18%, according to EMRS federal voter intention polling released today.
The EMRS poll of 1,000 Tasmanians shows Labor leading on 30%, with the Greens on 13% and independents on 12%.
The results show a dramatic jump for One Nation, which received just 6% at the last federal election.
In the federal electorate of Braddon, One Nation leads with 34% compared to Labor’s 31% and the Liberals’ 16%.
On a two-party preferred basis, Braddon is 50-50 between Labor and One Nation.
“The growth within Tasmania has been phenomenal,” Lee Hanson, One Nation’s lead Senate candidate, told the Poll Position podcast today.
The poll, conducted over the past week using a combination of phone and online surveys, has a margin of error of around 3 per cent.
Immigration emerged as the top federal issue for Tasmanian voters at 20%, followed by cost of living at 17%, healthcare at 12% and housing at 11%.
Among One Nation voters, 23% cited party policy agreement as their main reason for support, while 20% nominated immigration policy specifically.
Hanson joined the new Tasmanian political podcast as a guest with hosts Brad Stansfield, who owns EMRS, and fellow political analyst Alex Johnston.
“People are wanting change. They’re seeking change,” Ms Hanson said.
“They’ve lost hope in the traditional two-party … system.”
Hanson said One Nation is “days away” from lodging paperwork to register for Tasmanian state elections.
The party has established four branches across Tasmania’s five federal electorates, with a Braddon branch launch scheduled for next Saturday in Ulverstone.
Hanson, who moved to Tasmania 14 years ago, previously worked in human resources roles at TasWater and UTAS before joining Hydro Tasmania.
She said she is recruiting a “strong, comprehensive state executive leadership team” to lead One Nation’s state campaign.
“I can’t do it alone. It’s not about Lee Hanson,” she said.
Hanson said she would not endorse political “opportunists” who see One Nation as their “next opportunity” after unsuccessful campaigns with other parties.
The fresh EMRS poll showed Labor leading the Liberals 60-40 on a two-party preferred basis federally in Tasmania.
At an electorate level, Labor is leading Bass on 29% with Jess Teesdale, followed by One Nation on 25% and the Liberals on 23%.
In Lyons, Rebecca White has Labor holding 32% with One Nation on 29% and the Liberals trailing on 16%.
Clark showed the strongest independent vote at 25%, fueled by the popularity of long-standing independent MP Andrew Wilkie. Labor sits on 27%, the Greens on 17%, One Nation on 16% and the Liberals on 15%.
Franklin was Labor’s strongest seat at 34%, held by Julie Collins, ahead of the Liberals on 21%, the Greens on 19% and One Nation on 17%.
