The Liberals have held their lead in the latest DemosAU state voter intention poll, with Labor and One Nation separated by a single point in the race for second place.
The September poll of 1,097 Tasmanians has the Liberals unchanged on 28% and Labor up one point to 22%.
One Nation sits just one point behind Labor on 21%, despite neither contesting last year’s state election nor having any current candidates.
The gap between Labor and One Nation is well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%.
The Greens are up one point to 15%, while support for independents has fallen two points to 10%.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and other candidates are unchanged on 2% each. A further 3% of voters remained undecided and were excluded from the results.
Compared with last year’s election result, the Liberals are down 11.9 points, Labor has lost 3.9 points and independents have dropped 5.3 points.
DemosAU said those votes had mostly gone to One Nation.
Among smaller groups of voters, where the margin of error is larger, One Nation is level with the Liberals on 25% among voters aged 35 to 54 and leads all parties with 28% among TAFE-educated voters.
The Greens are on 23% among voters aged 18 to 34, second to the Liberals on 29% and ahead of Labor on 17%.
Rockliff’s net rating improved three points to zero, with 35% of respondents viewing him positively and 35% negatively.
Willie’s net rating fell two points to -8.
Rockliff leads Willie as preferred premier 42% to 34%, with 24% unsure.
Rockliff is up one point on the previous poll and Willie is up two, while the number of unsure respondents fell three points.
One Nation voters prefer Rockliff as premier 44% to 23%, while Greens voters favour Willie 50% to 21%.
Treasurer Eric Abetz recorded the lowest net rating of the 10 politicians tested at -18, despite a seven-point improvement.
Shadow Treasurer Dean Winter was on -14, Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff on -12 and Deputy Premier Guy Barnett on -7.
Independent MPs David O’Byrne and Kristie Johnston were the only politicians with positive ratings, at +9 and +4 respectively.
Cost of living was the biggest issue for 29% of respondents, followed by housing affordability and homelessness at 23% and the health system at 18%.
The economy and jobs and stadium spending were each nominated by 7% of respondents, and government debt and state government performance by 6% each.
DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said One Nation’s rise had disrupted not just the major parties but also independents.
“If this poll was replicated at an election, the Tasmanian parliament would look substantially different to the one elected just over a year ago,” he said.
Hasanakos said the likely result, a hung parliament with several parties, left the Liberals no reason to seek an early election.
“There is no incentive for the Liberals to want to go back to the polls any time soon to improve their parliamentary position, indeed they would probably lose seats,” he said.
He said Labor, the Greens and progressive independents also had no reason to force an election, as they would be unlikely to win a majority between them.
The poll was conducted online between September 1 and 20, with results weighted by age, gender, education, electorate and 2025 election vote.
