Tasmania’s feral deer bill could balloon from $53 million a year to almost $300 million by 2054, new economic modelling warns, as numbers continue to climb.
The report, prepared by Frontier Economics for the Invasive Species Council, found deer in the Midlands and eastern regions already cost the state more than $53 million a year.
Over 30 years, the costs could accumulate to almost $1.4 billion if impacts grow in line with the deer population.
The biggest hits are lost agricultural productivity, forestry damage and deer-related car crashes.
The report says even those figures are conservative.
It only covers the Midlands and eastern regions and does not put a dollar value on all the cultural, biodiversity and disease-risk impacts.
Invasive Species Council conservation officer Tiana Pirtle said the state was “sleepwalking into the same feral deer disaster we’re already seeing on the mainland”.
“This billion-dollar warning is actually an underestimate, given the modelling was only for part of the state and did not quantify all impacts,” Pirtle said.
“Feral deer are exploding across the landscape – trashing and trampling bushland and crops, smashing fences and causing dangerous road crashes.”
Deer numbers in the Midlands and eastern regions alone could surge from around 71,000 today to more than 667,000 by 2054.
Pirtle said the current approach was failing because governments still treated deer as a hunting resource “instead of treating them like the invasive species they are”.
She said the government had spent $5 million on deer management since 2022 or $1.25 million a year.
The council wants deer stripped of their legal protection and at least $3 million a year for coordinated control in the Midlands.
TasFarmers chief executive Nathan Calman said the growing deer population was a “significant and unfair burden” for primary producers.
“The current deer management plan has not slowed the population growth or spread of population in the state,” Calman said.
He said recent changes announced by the government were “meaningful in cutting red tape” but would not reduce numbers on their own.
“Deer must have their partially protected status removed as a first logical step,” Calman said.
Midlands ecologist Kerry Bridle said feral deer were a main driver of biodiversity decline in the region.
“It now costs about $30 to protect a single sapling from feral deer,” Bridle said.
The government announced changes to deer rules on June 2, including simpler culling permits and longer open seasons for hunters.
The next deer management plan will be brought forward by a year, with consultation expected to begin soon.
