Hobart’s proposed Macquarie Point stadium could increase Tasmania’s state debt by $2.3 billion by 2040, according to the economist behind a state-government-commissioned independent review of the stadium project.
Economist Nicholas Gruen, who was appointed by the Tasmanian government to assess the project early in 2025, has delivered an updated review commissioned by anti-stadium group Our Place Hobart – led by Roland Browne.
Gruen’s latest report says the stadium would impose a net cost on the state of more than $1 billion and deliver less than 40 cents of economic benefit for every dollar invested.
The government’s latest estimate puts total capital costs at $1.13 billion.
Gruen’s updated modelling has that figure at $1.5 billion, with a more pessimistic scenario pushing it to $1.75 billion.
His report warns the debt figure could be substantially higher again if major cost blowouts occur.
Gruen’s revised modelling shows the stadium’s net cost to Tasmania has risen from $795 million in his original review to more than $1 billion, while a worst-case scenario puts it closer to $1.8 billion.
The state government has promised $375 million, the federal government committed $240 million to the precinct and the AFL has pledged $15 million, with state borrowings to cover the rest.
“There are lots of people in Tasmania who support the stadium, who say it’s going to be an economic boon for Tasmania, and that’s complete rubbish,” Gruen told The Age in Melbourne on Monday.
“It will cost Tasmania about a billion dollars to have this stadium.”
He argued the Devils’ financial benefit from a new venue would be around $5 million to $6 million a year, something he said could be delivered through direct subsidies at a tenth of the cost.
“The AFL, I think quite outrageously, and very much flying in the face of its own interests, has insisted on this stadium,” he said.
Gruen said he wasn’t opposed to Tasmanians having a team.
“I’ve said I don’t like the way our political system is managing this because it’s not making the choices clear,” he said.
Construction tenders are due to provide an updated cost estimate later this year.
In a statement to Pulse, Minister for Macquarie Point Urban Renewal Eric Abetz said the government is “unable to comment on a report we have not seen”.
“We are getting on with the job of delivering the Macquarie Point stadium, which has been costed at $1.13 billion,” he said.
“We continue to monitor global supply challenges.”
“Our Place has been fierce critics of the plan since day one and its ongoing campaign against the project is unsurprising.”
