Early sampling of votes in Hobart’s council election points to a swing to the right, according to political analyst Kevin Bonham.
Voting in Tasmania’s local government elections closed at 2pm on Tuesday.
Dr Bonham stressed the figures were based on unofficial sampling by scrutineers and were not official results.
“Generally, the votes that I’m seeing are pretty good for the blue side, as I call them, the right-wing side,” he told ABC Radio.
“But we have to see how that pans out in terms of the councillor ballots and whether it holds up.”
He said the count had sometimes become “greener” as more votes were tallied.
On his blog, Dr Bonham said a sample of 500 lord mayor ballots put John Kelly on 20% and Charles Wooley on 16.4%.
Councillors Ryan Posselt and Bill Harvey followed on 13% and 11.8% respectively.
Dr Bonham said many voters had placed Kelly and Wooley first and second, in either order, meaning the elimination of one could help the other win.
Hobart is guaranteed a new lord mayor, with Anna Reynolds not recontesting.
For the nine councillor positions, Dr Bonham has called seats for Wooley, Kelly and Harvey. He also expects Posselt to be re-elected.
“Beyond that it’s a mess,” he wrote. He said at least one sitting councillor seeking re-election would lose their seat, possibly two or three.
In the deputy lord mayor race, Simon Behrakis narrowly led Zelinda Sherlock and Ben Lohberger in the sampling, with Louise Elliot not far behind.
The winner must also secure a councillor seat. Dr Bonham said the risk of a leading contender missing out had eased as their positions in the councillor count improved.
The Tasmanian Electoral Commission expects to release a provisional count for Hobart tonight.
Dr Bonham warned that candidates shown as elected at that stage could still lose their seats once all votes were counted.
