Tasmania is facing the slowest economic growth in the nation over the next decade, according to a new Deloitte Access Economics report that describes the state’s recent performance as “woeful”.
The business outlook report says Tasmania’s economy “delivered a woeful result in the first quarter of 2026, with investment retreating faster than the James Boag Brewery”.
Released in June, the report forecasts growth will slow to 0.9% in 2026-27 as household spending weakens.
Over the next decade, growth is tipped to average 1.7% a year – the lowest rate of any state or territory.
The report attributes the weak outlook to cost-of-living pressures and a pullback in government spending.
“Cost-of-living pressures are biting across the country, but Tasmanians are feeling the brunt of them,” it says.
It notes Tasmanians spend more of their budgets on fuel and transport than other Australians, helping push inflation to 5% in the year to May.
The report also points to “years of overspending” that propped up the economy and contributed to “the worst budget deterioration in the country”.
“But with many budget commitments still outstanding, the state budget will likely deteriorate even further than presented in the budget papers,” it warns.
The report also highlights structural problems, including the slowest population growth in the country, with people continuing to leave for the mainland “in droves”.
Labor MP and shadow treasurer Dean Winter used the findings to criticise the state government.
He said Treasurer Eric Abetz had responded with “massive cuts that will further weaken the economy, as Tasmanians pay the price for 13 years of Liberal waste”.
Winter also cited separate ABS data showing 7,000 jobs had been lost since the government was formed in August 2025.
“On these numbers, Tasmania’s economy is shrinking and economic conditions are the worst they have been since the Global Financial Crisis,” he said.
Minister Felix Ellis instead blamed global shocks and the federal budget.
“What is really clear from the Deloitte report and others is that there are significant global and national headwinds that we need to make sure that we’re addressing here in Tasmania,” he said.
Ellis pointed to the conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel prices, along with what he called the federal government’s “disastrous budget”.
