Support for One Nation has jumped to 19% in Tasmania, with the minor party now sitting just behind both major parties in the latest EMRS state voting intentions poll.
The May 2026 poll, conducted from May 11 to 13 with 1000 Tasmanians, shows the Liberals on 25%, down four points since February.
According to EMRS, it is the party’s worst result since May 2001.
Labor sits at 24%, up one point. One Nation has climbed five points in three months, a 36% increase on its February result of 14%.
The Greens are on 14% and independents on 16%.
For the first time in the history of the EMRS series, the combined Liberal-Labor vote has fallen below 50%.
Speaking on the Poll Position podcast, host Brad Stansfield described the result as a “mini earthquake” for Tasmanian politics.
“[They] are a bit of a mini earthquake in terms of Tasmanian politics,” Stansfield said.
“They do show that One Nation is starting to have a real impact at state level.”
“I think they put to bed any suggestion that One Nation is not a problem for the Tasmanian Liberal government.”
Co-host Alex Johnston said the collapse of the major party vote was the standout finding.
“The two major parties failing to cobble together 50% of the vote in a long-held poll … is pretty extraordinary,” Johnston said.
The shift appears to be coming almost entirely from the Liberals, with the four-point drop matching One Nation’s gain on the right of politics.
Stansfield said the data pointed to a structural realignment rather than a passing protest vote.
“What we are seeing is a structural realignment of the centre-right vote,” he said.
Despite the slide in the Liberal vote, Premier Jeremy Rockliff has lifted his standing as preferred premier to 44%, up four points. Labor leader Josh Willie is on 25%, down one.
The 19-point gap is believed to be a record for the series.
Among One Nation voters, Rockliff led Willie 54% to 12% as preferred premier, suggesting most are former Liberal voters who have shifted allegiance but not crossed to Labor.
“These One Nation voters are essentially Liberal voters who are moving to One Nation, still preferring Jeremy Rockliff when push comes to shove, but not wanting to cross the line to Labor,” Stansfield said.
Net favourability ratings showed Rockliff on plus four, Willie on minus four, and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff on minus five.
The hosts said Labor would be concerned its primary vote had failed to grow despite the Liberal slide.
“Labor’s vote is relatively stable, stagnant. It’s not going anywhere,” Stansfield said.
“It’s hard to see them any closer to forming government on these numbers.”
The poll was in the field before two significant developments late last week – a $507 million bailout for the troubled TT-Line and revelations about the government’s TasInsure policy.
Johnston said both issues were unknowns that “would give Labor a little bit of hope”.
Stansfield said the figures set a difficult backdrop ahead of the state budget this Thursday.
“Going into what’s by all accounts going to be a very, very tough budget with your worst result in 25 years,” he said. “Not a good starting point.”
The next quarterly EMRS state poll is due in three months.
